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“They” say a conspiracy theorist is someone who is correct ten years too early. What’s funny is this is the same definition of an economic forecaster. Read more

For those who care about New Zealanders’ wellbeing, the central issue is if the benefits of any given level of lockdown plausibly exceed the costs. About four months ago, I calculated it might be worth sacrificing 6.1% of one year of New Zealand’s GDP if doing so was sure to permanently avoid 33,600 Covid deaths. Read more

The Prime Minister has declared this year’s election, now postponed until October, a “Covid election.” That is an unfortunate framing. Though dealing with Covid is crucial for the country’s short- to mid-term future, there are plenty of other attention-deserving issues like education, housing and transport. Read more

After a Covid-free century of days since the country’s last case, 11 August will be remembered as the day the lustre wore off New Zealand’s triumph over the coronavirus. With Auckland at Alert Level 3, nearly two fifths of the “team of five million” is back in lockdown. Read more

Almost thirty years ago, economist Michael Kremer proposed a (then) new theory of economic development. It has always worried me a bit in relation to New Zealand. Read more

At the end of this week, New Zealand is back in a situation we hoped to have left behind. With Auckland in lockdown and the country on alert, Covid-19 is back. Read more

With the number of Auckland’s Covid cases increasing exponentially, there is every chance the Government will extend the city’s Alert Level 3 lockdown for several weeks. How we got here and the lessons we can learn are questions for another day. Read more

Even with the best of practices at the border, eventually something will get through. And something now has – though officials are still trying to figure out whether it came in with a passenger, or through refrigerated transport. Read more